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Time Cycles
Some analysts believe that price analysis alone only offers half the information needed for successful trading. The other part is time, more exactly time cycles, which give actual insight into understanding the movements of markets. Common cycles are the seasonal cycles apparent in many commodity markets, but cycles can be detected on intra-day charts as well.
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Trading Index
This index (also known as the "Arms" index, or "TRIN") measures the relative strength of volume associated with advancing stocks against the strength of volume associated with declining stocks. When used as a short term indicator, readings below 1.0 are considered bullish while readings above 1.0 are considered bearish. An extreme bearish reading would be 1.5 or higher; an extreme bullish reading would be .5 and lower. Readings of 2.0 or .3 would be considered "climactic". For the intermediate term, a bearish sign is an index over 1.0, bullish under 1.0. For the long term, the Trading Index can be viewed as an overbought / oversold indicator.
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Trix
Single linear exponential smoothing was developed in the early 1950s as a means of prediction along a straight line whose slope was based on previous data. The Triple Exponential Smoothing Oscillator (Trix) has now been developed to act on trends of a higher order than linear. Trix uses a one-day momentum of a triple exponential smoothed price series to produce an indicator which is cycle dependent. Changes in the Trix direction are less prone to whipsaws than standard cycle-momentum indicators. The period is chosen to filter out any insignificant cycles shorter than the period. Fourier Analysis or visual observation may be used to find the proper cycle length of a given market. Raising the number of days will remove more small cycles and smooth out the oscillator, but at the loss of sensitivity. The more smoothing that is applied to the data, the more of a lag in the oscillator, but not nearly the lag of a normal moving average.
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Volume Accumulation
This volume indicator addresses some of On Balance Volume's shortcomings and was developed by Marc Chaikin. Where OBV assigns all of a day's volume a positive or negative value, Volume Accumulation counts only a percentage of the volume as positive or negative, depending on where the close is in relation to the average price of the day. The only time the entire day's volume is assigned a positive value is when the close is the same as the day's high. The opposite applies for a close at the day's low.
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Volatility
This analysis is based on the idea that stocks bottom from "panic" selling, after which a rebound is imminent. One way of measuring this phenomenon is to observe a widening range between high and low prices each day. In general a progressively wider range, observed over a relatively short period of time, can indicate that a bottom is near. Price tops are generally reached at a more leisurely pace and can be characterized by a narrowing of the price range. This measure of the trading range takes place over a specified period in order to determine whether or not an issue is being "dumped" and is approaching a bottom. A prerequisite to a valid bottom is an increase in the volatility line above the reference line. In a similar manner, an indication of an imminent top would be a decrease in the volatility line below the reference line. As long as volatility is rising, in all probability a stock will not approach a top. It should be noted that this study should be used in conjunction with trend following analyses and momentum oscillators for confirmation and accuracy.
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